How is it possible to prepare for unexpected catastrophes? One of the approaches taken by the proponents of the ‘risk society’ is to make use of the computer modelling techniques of network theory. By breaking down any system – economics, society, the environment – into a collection of points connected by lines, it’s possible to model it mathematically, apply the general principles of probability theory and predict certain outcomes. The most valuable outcome from the perspective of risk analysis is the ‘critical transition’ that shifts a system from stability into catastrophe. The international Risk Governance Council is a think tank that attempts to identify ‘slow-developing catastrophic risks’ at the earliest stage. It considers, for example, that the 2008/09 financial crisis, the revolutionary changes of the ‘Arab Spring’ and the desertification of the Aral Sea are all examples of catastrophe theory in action. Is it hubris to think they could have been predicted? For the full story, see http://www.irgc.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/CN_Prep.-for-Future-Catastrophes_final_11March13.pdf